Support for the SNP is increasing again, 10 years after Scotland voted against the party's flagship policy.
A fresh poll, conducted in the days prior to the anniversary of the Scottish independence referendum, found the SNP winning 47 seats in Holyrood with Labour, who have been neck and neck with the SNP on Holyrood polling data for some time, only forecast to win 33.
The data suggests, as well as the SNP regaining support that has dropped since the 2021 Scottish election, Labour will lose potential votes due to its decision to cut the winter fuel allowance.
"Retaining the support [Labour] won in July may not be easy and its path towards winning the Holyrood election of 2026 may well be far from straightforward", said Sir John Curtice.
The polling guru forecasts an unstable parliament due to the surge of Reform north of the border.
Labour, Conservatives (16 seats) and Liberal Democrats (eight seats) wouldn't have enough for a unionist majority and would be reliant on votes from Reform, who are tied in polling with the Tories.
Sir John continued: "All calculations about what might happen at that election could be upset if Reform can maintain the popularity they are beginning to develop north of the border.
"Although on these figures there would no longer be a pro-Yes majority at Holyrood, making it impossible to pursue Indyref2, not even a deal between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives would provide the numbers required to give unionists control of the Holyrood chamber."
Opinium interviewed 1,028 people aged 16 and older in Scotland between September 5 and September 11.