The Scottish Green Party has indicated it will vote against the SNP's budget after John Swinney outlined his programme for government.
A number of policies forged between the two parties during the Bute House Agreement, including an extension of free school meals and more environmental policies, have been watered down or delayed.
Despite the bill potentially gaining the support of Alba's sole MSP Ash Regan, the SNP would require more support from other parties.
The only time in 25 years of devolution that the budget has not passed at the first attempt was in 2009, when Mr Swinney was finance secretary and he was unable to win over the support of the Scottish Greens.
It looks as if the same stumbling block remains for the new first minister.
But the Green Party's finance spokesman, Ross Greer, said the announcements in Mr Swinney's programme for government were "not the moves you would make if you were trying to win over the support of the Scottish Greens".
Mr Greer said the SNP's decision not to introduce universal free school meals to pupils in P6 and P7 was "not in good faith".
He told BBC Drivetime: "“That’s something we had agreed — and if we can’t even get previous agreements delivered on, how can we possibly trust them to deliver on any new agreement that we would reach later this year?"