Labour could win a 262-seat majority in next month’s election if a new seat-by-seat analysis by Survation is replicated on July 4.
The Conservatives would win only 72 of 632 seats. It would be less than half their previous worst election result since their formation nearly two centuries ago (156 seats in 1906).
The poll indicates that the SNP would complete a clean sweep of North-east seats, with Andrew Bowie losing his West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine seat, and Douglas Ross losing out to the nationalists in the new Gordon and Buchan seat. Aberdeenshire North and Moray East would also turn yellow as the electoral map of Aberdeenshire is redrawn.
Labour would remain without a seat in the entire north of Scotland, with Dunfermline being the most northerly seat it is projected to pick up.
The survey of 22,000 people, commissioned by Best for Britain and published in The Sunday Times, still shows the Conservatives as the main opposition party — as long as they do not slip further.
It was conducted between May 31 and June 13, during which period Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK.
Mr Farage is projected to win Clacton narrowly by 31% to 29% over Giles Watling, the defending Conservative.
Under the first-past-the-post system used in parliamentary elections, Labour is set to win 70 per cent of the seats (456) in the new parliament with 40%of the total vote.
Only 30 % of MPs would be made up of other parties including the Conservatives (72), Lib Dems (56), SNP (37), Reform (7), Plaid Cymru (2) and Greens (1), despite gathering 60% of the vote.
Although Survation’s figures suggest the SNP is ahead in 37 seats, down 11 on 2019, it also shows that the contest in Scotland is wide open, with Labour behind by less than 2.5% on vote share in three seats and less than 5% behind in a further four. Labour is set to win 14 seats but if these marginal seats go their way it could be as many as 21. The Conservatives are set to win one (down five) and the Lib Dems five (up three). These figures take account of the new boundaries.
The size of Labour’s lead illustrates how the system punishes medium-sized parties with evenly-spread support.