The University of Aberdeen will share in a £15million investment in research to help the UK prepare for climate change.
Professor Pete Smith, professor of soils and global change, will lead on a UKRI and Defra funded project as part of the ‘Maximising UK Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC)’ programme.
In collaboration with project partners the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of Sheffield, The Food Foundation, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit and Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, he will explore how the UK adapts to climate-induced food price shocks.
Professor Smith said: “The UK is emerging from a cost-of-living crisis featuring a 40-year high in food price inflation of which 60% was attributable to climate change.
“9.7million adults and 4million children experienced food insecurity and policy makers were ill-prepared to ameliorate impacts on public health.
“We will assess the impacts of climate change on production of food products in the UK and elsewhere in the world where the UK sources food.
“Using economic models, we will determine the pathways through which climate-induced food price inflation – or ‘climateflation’ - impacts on health in the UK, and through this identify options to improve resilience of the population to such shocks.”
The research will analyse the period 2021-4 to evaluate how climate change and extreme weather events in the UK and elsewhere in the world impacted on food prices.
The project will also consider the impact on dietary quality and safety, mental and physical health outcomes and inequalities, and the extent to which policy makers and food businesses worsened or alleviated these health impacts.
Researchers will focus on low-income adults and their children and will also investigate impacts on British farmers.
“Future climateflation in the UK has not been estimated,” Professor Smith added. “Through novel modelling we will quantify estimates and predict the health consequences, making the case and laying the groundwork for a suite of new policies across agriculture, public procurement, supply chain fairness and social welfare to ameliorate effects and build resilience.”
The Aberdeen-led project is one of six sharing in the funding as part of work to consider how all four UK nations can better address current barriers around public awareness, policy, legislation and climate data currently hindering the UK’s ability to adapt to the effects of a changing, warming climate.
Defra chief scientific advisor Gideon Henderson said: “Tackling climate change not only means accelerating progress towards net zero, but also strengthening the resilience of human and natural systems to the changes that a warmer climate brings.
“Communities across the UK are already being impacted by shifting underlying weather patterns and by increasingly intense and frequent extreme weather; heatwaves, storms, wildfires droughts, flooding and more.
"Projects like those announced today give us ever better data and insights to help us safeguard our natural environment, protect human health and ensure food security, as we seek to maximise our adaptation to a changing climate.”
Professor Louise Heathwaite, Natural Environment Research Council executive chair and UKRI executive champion for building a green future, said: “While we look to mitigate further climate change, we must also adapt to what’s happening right now. These new research projects, alongside the Hub already up and running, will provide vital insights into how best to manage extreme weather and other effects we already see and feel around us.
“UKRI’s five strategic themes aim to tackle such large-scale, complex challenges. Working with others, we aim to accelerate the green economy by supporting research and innovation that delivers on national priorities and unlocks solutions essential to achieving net zero in the UK by 2050.”