Millions of households could face blackouts this winter because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ministers have been warned.
The Times reports this morning that the government’s “reasonable” worst-case scenario, which has been drawn up by officials from across Whitehall, says that there could be widespread gas shortages if Russia goes further in cutting off supplies to the EU.
A minister told the newspaper that the briefing suggested that electricity could have to be rationed for up to six million homes at the start of next year, mostly at peaks in the morning and evening. The curbs could last more than a month, causing energy prices to rise again and leaving GDP lower than forecast for years to come.
Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, has written to the owners of Britain’s three remaining coal-fired power stations to ask them to stay open for longer than planned. They were due to close in September under plans to phase them out entirely by 2024 to reduce emissions.
The worst-case scenario is understood to raise concerns that Norwegian imports of gas, on which Britain is reliant, could more than halve because of increased EU demand. Imports of liquefied natural gas, which are brought into Britain by tankers, could also halve because of greater competition.
The modelling is understood to assume that Britain will receive no imports of gas from “interconnectors” in the Netherlands and Belgium as both countries face their own emergencies.
Blackouts
The shortages would force Britain to implement its own gas emergency plans, which would lead to the closure of gas-fired power stations. Heavy industrial users of gas would also be told to stop using it.
The closure of the plants would lead to a shortage of electricity, forcing the government, in effect, to ration. It would be turned off on weekdays at peak times in the morning, between 7am and 10am, and in the evenings, between 4pm and 9pm. Gas supply to homes would be unaffected.
Officials are also said to have drawn up an even bleaker strategy in the event of Russia cutting off gas entirely to the EU. It suggests that energy blackouts could start in December and last for three months, with blackouts both on weekdays and weekends.
A Whitehall source said: “As a responsible government it is right that we plan for every single extreme scenario, however unlikely. Britain is well prepared for any supply disruptions.
"Unlike EU countries, our North Sea gas reserves are being pumped out at full pelt, Norwegian rigs are directly connected into the UK, and we have the second-largest LNG import infrastructure in Europe — whereas Germany has none. Given the EU’s historic dependence on Putin’s gas, the winter could be very hard for countries on the Continent.”
Extra capacity
Meanwhile, National Grid is holding emergency talks with energy companies to ramp up gas pipeline capacity after it was forced to turn away crucial shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG).
The Grid has pledged to address industry concerns over lack of capacity on its network so it can deliver the supplies needed to tackle the European energy crisis, according to the Telegraph.
The company has kick-started talks with LNG importer South Hook Gas to make sure it can handle a higher level of cargoes next year. It is also planning to discuss the network's capacity issues at an industry workshop on 9 June.
Gas companies have seen the move as a sign National Grid is willing to consider ways to ramp up capacity in 2023.
National Grid has been forced to dramatically reduce the amount of capacity it offers at ports in Milford Haven in Wales this summer over fears it is running out of space for the fossil fuel required to replace Russian gas on the continent.
It has also cut back on supply so it can push ahead with maintenance work on the pipeline.
National Grid is now weighing up plans to increase the pressure in the pipes in its gas network ahead of summer 2023, although talks are at an early stage. National Grid has not made any firm commitments in discussions so far.