Labour is on course for a thumping victory in Scotland according to a new poll from True North.
The political advisory firm’s data finds Sir Keir Starmer’s party has a four-point lead over the SNP (36% vs 32%), with Conservative (17%) and Liberal Democrat (9%) support remaining largely unchanged in the last two months.
That would put the Labour Party on course to win 28 of the 57 Scottish seats, most of which in the central belt, while the SNP is set to be decimated, winning just 16 seats.
The survey, conducted by Survation between May 23 and May 27, also expects the Conservatives to make gains north of the border by winning eight seats, up from the six they currently have, while the Liberal Democrats are expected to add one to their tally taking them to five.
Commenting, True North Managing Partner Fergus Mutch said: “With five long weeks of campaigning ahead, it’s very much Labour’s election to lose.
“These figures suggest that they are primed to overturn a score of SNP-held seats in central belt Scotland and return the most MPs to Westminster. With momentum on the side of the Labour Party UK-wide, it will require a powerful response from any party seeking to halt this juggernaut.
“That said, the difference in vote share between Labour and the SNP remains fairly marginal — and these figures are tighter than suggested by other polls in recent weeks.
“The SNP will be hoping that with new leadership they can find renewed purpose which can at least stem the predicted losses, if not completely turn the tide.”
Starmer’s Scotland’s No 1
Sir Keir Starmer has also emerged far and away Scotland’s best liked politician, scoring a net favourability rating of +7%.
Rishi Sunak sits on -38%, while John Swinney’s is -7%.
Renowned polling expert and President of the British Polling Council, Prof Sir John Curtice, said: “The fallout from Humza Yousaf's termination of the Bute House Agreement has enabled the SNP to install a somewhat less unpopular leader in John Swinney. However, Mr Swinney's rating is well below what Nicola Sturgeon enjoyed before she resigned as the SNP's head last year, and the downfall of Mr Yousaf has not provided an immediate remedy for the SNP's electoral difficulties.
“Rather the fallout from the termination of the Bute House Agreement has further weakened the grip of the SNP on the loyalties of Scotland's voters. The party's support for Westminster is as much as four points down on the beginning of the year. Fewer than two in three of those who would vote Yes in an independence referendum are currently minded to vote for the party.
“As a result, Labour now have a clear lead in Westminster vote intentions for the first time since the 2014 independence referendum.
“As the general election campaign gets under way, the SNP face the prospect of severe losses at the beginning of July, and thus the possible loss of its coveted status as the third largest party at Westminster. The party badly needs to try and persuade Yes supporters to return to the party fold.”