John Swinney might have "stemmed the bleeding" of the SNP, but fresh polling data still predicts a thumping Labour win in Scotland.
A new poll, carried out by Savanta for The Scotsman, is consistent with others in expecting Labour to win almost half (28) of Scotland's seats when the public hit the polls on July 4.
However, Holyrood data paints a prettier picture for the SNP.
The party's list vote percentage would jump to 30%, with Labour slipping to 29%.
Analysis from Sir John Curtice gives the SNP 43 seats in Holyrood, in comparison to Labour's 41.
He said: “Not only has SNP support held steady on that at the beginning of May when the party was reeling from the fallout from the ending of the Bute House Agreement, but both John Swinney's personal rating and the image of his party have improved somewhat.
“Among those who voted SNP in 2019, Mr Swinney's net favourability rating has edged up from +31 to +37.
"His party is now somewhat more likely to be thought to have strong leadership and to keep its promises, and its perceived ability to understand the issues facing ordinary people and Scotland as a whole have improved somewhat.”
Starmer remains Scotland's favourite
Sir Keir Starmer is still Scotland's most popular leader with a net favourability rating of +2, while Mr Swinney is second with -4, and Anas Sarwar third on -7.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: "Our first poll since John Swinney was confirmed as Scotland’s First Minister suggests that he has managed to stem the SNP’s bleeding.
"In a sense this is positive news for the SNP, but is also a likely consequence of him simply not being Humza Yousaf.
“There’s plenty of campaign yet to go, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the bigger picture – Labour held one Scottish MP after the last general election and our poll suggests they could be within touching distance of 30.
"Starmer’s focus on Scotland looks like it may well be paying off, even if this stalemate holds until election day."