Alex Salmond is set to make a return to frontline politics with his Alba Party on course to win four seats in Holyrood, according to a new poll.
A Sunday Times survey - conducted by Norstat - also has the SNP as Scotland's largest party in government, but predicts a unionist alliance would see Anas Sarwar become First Minister.
The Reform Party are expected to make inroads with eight seats predicted, generally at the expense of the Conservatives who would see their numbers almost halve to 18.
Analysis of the poll, which is the first to be conducted since the general election, puts the SNP on 41 seats, ahead of Labour's 40.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice predicts the Greens will win 10 seats, meaning pro-independence party's would fall short of an overall majority.
Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats (who are predicted to win eight seats) could combine for an overall majority of three, according to the Sir John.
“The challenge that still faces Swinney is whether he can make more of a success of his party’s leadership than he managed when he first led the party in the early years of devolution," said the polling expert.
He added: "Fending off Labour’s challenge will require strong and effective leadership from the SNP.
"And while 23% of Scots believe that John Swinney is doing a good job as first minister, 34% believe he is doing a bad job, a net score of -11, down four on his rating shortly before the election.
"This means he is trailing Sir Keir Starmer, who is now on -5, up from -11 before polling day."