New seat-by-seat analysis shows Tory prospects have hit a record low and they are on track for their worst election result, winning fewer than 100 seats.
Labour would win 468, giving Sir Keir Starmer’s party a whopping 286-seat majority, according to the Sunday Times.
The 15,000-person MRP poll, conducted by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain, puts Labour on 45 per cent of the vote share with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, up three points from the campaign group’s previous poll at the end of last year.
The Tories are on track to win just 98 seats, with none in Scotland or Wales. Undecided voters were not accounted for in the survey but represented about 15% of those asked, which is at the lower end of most polls.
The Tories are pinning their hopes on winning them over when the country finally goes to the polls.
The forecast even suggests the prime minister is at risk of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond & Northallerton seat, to Labour, with his lead less than 2.5 percentage points.
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, has a one-point lead over the Liberal Democrats in his new seat of Godalming & Ash.
The poll will reignite efforts by those plotting to topple the prime minister. Lord Frost, the former Brexit secretary and a vocal critic of Sunak, said the figures showed the “desperate situation” the Conservative Party was facing. “The polling is getting worse over time, not better,” he said.
Sunak’s aides fear he could face a leadership challenge after the local elections if, as predicted, the Tories face a humiliating wipeout.
Some of his closest advisers are urging him to hold a summer general election amid fears his position could become untenable.